So there's been talk in recent months of Guardians being a huge gamble and risk for their Studio. Personally I don't agree but it got me thinking of what I consider the riskiest so far.
I think for me the riskiest CBMs have been (in order or release):
Superman: The Movie
X-Men
HULK
Elektra
Sin City
V For Vendetta
Iron Man
THOR
Kick Ass
X-Men First Class
Dredd
Avengers
X-Men Days of Future Past
Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
_____
Superman: The Motion Picture
This was the first major Comic Book Movie. At that point the idea of a movie based on a Comic Book character must've been quite laughable considering how Comics have for the majority been considered for kids.
X-Men
Released at a time when the genre was dying, there was the campy abomination known as Batman and Robin which cemented to studios that Audiences didn't care for the colourful characters anymore. X-Men Successfully launched both the X-Men movie franchise but also all subsequent Marvel movie franchises against the odds.
HULK
Imo one of the riskiest.
Audiences had know of the hulk quite abit over the year mostly from the 70s television show and the 90s cartoon.
Doing a Hulk movie was imo risky due to the need for a big CGI character this isn't an issue these days but back in 2003 it was an issue. Not a huge issue as movies like Jurassic Park paved the way but still a difficulty as up to this point there had never been such a CGI character in the genre.
However the reason I think this was amongst the riskiest as they were banking on audiences forgetting pre-conceptions and buying into the movie at hand, which unfortunately didn't happen. Audiences were expecting and wanting a big action movie where Hulk smashed and didn't get behind the anger management theme and drama of the Jekyll and Hyde story
Elektra
Was a big risk as it was the first to be female led comic book movie since the poorly received Supergirl movie. The movie was rather poor as were the subsequent and former female superhero movies with the industry still wary to this day of producing a Female-driven CBM.
Sin City
This is imo the riskiest CBM to this day.
Releasing a comic book movie wasn't as easy back around this time, especially an obscure comic book movie. This had neither the fanbase level as a DC or Marvel property.
In addition to that this was also a movie with a unique visual style. This could be seen as a plus or a negative considering it could've been viewed as a fresh look or a gimmick, either way it was a unique black and white visual style that was uncommon.
On top of all of that the movie was an R-Rated and violent movie which hadn't been done in the CBM genre before and is almost always a death sentence at the box office.
The fact they even made the movie is astonishing.
V For Vendetta
A dark and adult CBM, R-Rated and the first to feature a Superhero/Vigilante with his face completely covered throughout the whole movie, In addition setting this outside of the US (a first for the genre) in an alternate present made it less accessible
Iron Man
While not as big as risk as some other this was a character that was decidedly lower B list. The big hitters such as X-Men, Spider-Man, Fantastic Four had a bigger audience and even secondary's such as Daredevil had more of a cult fanbase than Iron Man. Also casting what was considered a washed up actor who had a lot of personal troubles was a disconcerting choice.
THOR
I'd consider this risky but the perhaps the least riskiest of the riskiest.
While the subject matter was of an Alien God which would've been very risky prospect the majority of the movie was a standard fish-out-of-water tale where-in the character spends the bulk of the movie out of costume, on Earth without his powers, however we did get a good portion on Asgard with Loki so...
Kick Ass
I'd consider this risky as while released during the Superhero Movie renaissance it was like Sin City a violent and adult picture. This was and probably still remains the grounded and realistic CBM. Featuring a child not only killing frequently and with such gore but also swearing like no tomorrow was quite a controversial move.
X-Men First Class
Not the first movie you'd think of in terms of being risky but perhaps one of the most.
This movie took a movie franchise with a considerable following and tried something very different. Although being the fifth movie in the overall X-Men mega-franchise and the fourth in main X-Men team franchise it featured none of the accumulated cast and few of the main characters with a new director at the helm and and new time period.
It was a risk that paid off as it brought considerable goodwill back to the franchise and helped usher the franchise into a new direction of success both critical and financially
Dredd
R-Rated and quite violent. Main character has the majority of his face covered for the whole movie.
The Avengers
As many like to state on a daily basis this was the successful conclusion of a process that hadn't been attempted before. It could've easily fell flat with audiences if they did not buy into the franchises and characters combining fluidly into one crossover movie, fortunately for marvel and fans it was a hit with audiences who very much accepted the cinematic universe concept.
X-Men Days of Future Past
While not as big a risk as First Class or others on this list i'd consider this somewhat a risk as it risked implosion through ambition.
The plan was to combine the two eras in the X-Men franchise, introduce and execute understandable time-travel, juggle the largest cast ever assembled in a superhero movie (or most movies for that matter) and usher a new direction for the franchise.
It worked.
Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
I think on retrospect I'd consider this the riskiest. In addition to all the risks present as the first movie it also has the hurdle of arriving very late from the original, 9 years to be precise and several recastings due to story and actors needing replacing.
_____
Future Riskiness evaluations
Fantastic Four
Internet backlash is at a high. Risk determination will to depend on trailer reaction, imo
Doctor Strange
Subject Matter is rather unique in the genre. it's a question if audiences will respond however it has little financial risk.
Shazam!
WB/DC doesn't have guaranteed draw as of yet with the DCCU. The source has a Child transforming into an adult super being this doesn't mesh well with the DCCU tone thus far and could prove a problem of cohesion. If Dwayne Johnson is involved that could increase risk, although his star power is large his individual movies do not bring in a lot. His box office power mostly comes from the quantity of movies.
I think for me the riskiest CBMs have been (in order or release):
Superman: The Movie
X-Men
HULK
Elektra
Sin City
V For Vendetta
Iron Man
THOR
Kick Ass
X-Men First Class
Dredd
Avengers
X-Men Days of Future Past
Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
_____
Superman: The Motion Picture
This was the first major Comic Book Movie. At that point the idea of a movie based on a Comic Book character must've been quite laughable considering how Comics have for the majority been considered for kids.
X-Men
Released at a time when the genre was dying, there was the campy abomination known as Batman and Robin which cemented to studios that Audiences didn't care for the colourful characters anymore. X-Men Successfully launched both the X-Men movie franchise but also all subsequent Marvel movie franchises against the odds.
HULK
Imo one of the riskiest.
Audiences had know of the hulk quite abit over the year mostly from the 70s television show and the 90s cartoon.
Doing a Hulk movie was imo risky due to the need for a big CGI character this isn't an issue these days but back in 2003 it was an issue. Not a huge issue as movies like Jurassic Park paved the way but still a difficulty as up to this point there had never been such a CGI character in the genre.
However the reason I think this was amongst the riskiest as they were banking on audiences forgetting pre-conceptions and buying into the movie at hand, which unfortunately didn't happen. Audiences were expecting and wanting a big action movie where Hulk smashed and didn't get behind the anger management theme and drama of the Jekyll and Hyde story
Elektra
Was a big risk as it was the first to be female led comic book movie since the poorly received Supergirl movie. The movie was rather poor as were the subsequent and former female superhero movies with the industry still wary to this day of producing a Female-driven CBM.
Sin City
This is imo the riskiest CBM to this day.
Releasing a comic book movie wasn't as easy back around this time, especially an obscure comic book movie. This had neither the fanbase level as a DC or Marvel property.
In addition to that this was also a movie with a unique visual style. This could be seen as a plus or a negative considering it could've been viewed as a fresh look or a gimmick, either way it was a unique black and white visual style that was uncommon.
On top of all of that the movie was an R-Rated and violent movie which hadn't been done in the CBM genre before and is almost always a death sentence at the box office.
The fact they even made the movie is astonishing.
V For Vendetta
A dark and adult CBM, R-Rated and the first to feature a Superhero/Vigilante with his face completely covered throughout the whole movie, In addition setting this outside of the US (a first for the genre) in an alternate present made it less accessible
Iron Man
While not as big as risk as some other this was a character that was decidedly lower B list. The big hitters such as X-Men, Spider-Man, Fantastic Four had a bigger audience and even secondary's such as Daredevil had more of a cult fanbase than Iron Man. Also casting what was considered a washed up actor who had a lot of personal troubles was a disconcerting choice.
THOR
I'd consider this risky but the perhaps the least riskiest of the riskiest.
While the subject matter was of an Alien God which would've been very risky prospect the majority of the movie was a standard fish-out-of-water tale where-in the character spends the bulk of the movie out of costume, on Earth without his powers, however we did get a good portion on Asgard with Loki so...
Kick Ass
I'd consider this risky as while released during the Superhero Movie renaissance it was like Sin City a violent and adult picture. This was and probably still remains the grounded and realistic CBM. Featuring a child not only killing frequently and with such gore but also swearing like no tomorrow was quite a controversial move.
X-Men First Class
Not the first movie you'd think of in terms of being risky but perhaps one of the most.
This movie took a movie franchise with a considerable following and tried something very different. Although being the fifth movie in the overall X-Men mega-franchise and the fourth in main X-Men team franchise it featured none of the accumulated cast and few of the main characters with a new director at the helm and and new time period.
It was a risk that paid off as it brought considerable goodwill back to the franchise and helped usher the franchise into a new direction of success both critical and financially
Dredd
R-Rated and quite violent. Main character has the majority of his face covered for the whole movie.
The Avengers
As many like to state on a daily basis this was the successful conclusion of a process that hadn't been attempted before. It could've easily fell flat with audiences if they did not buy into the franchises and characters combining fluidly into one crossover movie, fortunately for marvel and fans it was a hit with audiences who very much accepted the cinematic universe concept.
X-Men Days of Future Past
While not as big a risk as First Class or others on this list i'd consider this somewhat a risk as it risked implosion through ambition.
The plan was to combine the two eras in the X-Men franchise, introduce and execute understandable time-travel, juggle the largest cast ever assembled in a superhero movie (or most movies for that matter) and usher a new direction for the franchise.
It worked.
Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
I think on retrospect I'd consider this the riskiest. In addition to all the risks present as the first movie it also has the hurdle of arriving very late from the original, 9 years to be precise and several recastings due to story and actors needing replacing.
_____
Future Riskiness evaluations
Fantastic Four
Internet backlash is at a high. Risk determination will to depend on trailer reaction, imo
Doctor Strange
Subject Matter is rather unique in the genre. it's a question if audiences will respond however it has little financial risk.
Shazam!
WB/DC doesn't have guaranteed draw as of yet with the DCCU. The source has a Child transforming into an adult super being this doesn't mesh well with the DCCU tone thus far and could prove a problem of cohesion. If Dwayne Johnson is involved that could increase risk, although his star power is large his individual movies do not bring in a lot. His box office power mostly comes from the quantity of movies.
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